Niektórzy przedstawiciele męskiej część obozu politycznego demokratów ujawnili się z krytyką, anonimową rzecz jasna, Bidena, iż ten zbyt pospiesznie zadeklarował wybór kobiety, odbierając sobie możliwość lepszego sprofilowania demokratycznego „biletu”. Stawka kandydatek wpierw kurcząca się, poczęła znów puchnąć. Na ostatniej prostej pojawiła się kandydatura Susan Rice, byłej ambasador przy ONZ i doradcy do spraw bezpieczeństwa narodowego w administracji Obamy, i to ona najpewniej stanowiła ostatnią przeszkodę dla Harris.

Rice podobnie jak Harris nie była kandydatką politycznie polaryzującą. Plasowała się w centrum spektrum światopoglądowego współczesnej Partii Demokratycznej. Cieszyła się zaufaniem poprzedniej pary prezydenckiej oraz, w przeciwieństwie do Harris, samego Bidena. Harris, zaliczana do kręgów establishmentowo-umiarkowanych, toczyła z Bidenem w prawyborach wyrównany bój na śmierć i życie. Mocno wykrwawiony Biden przetrwał jednak okres wczesnych porażek i powrócił do świata politycznie żywych, by toczyć kolejny wyrównany bój z Bernie Sandersem. Wycofanie się z wyścigu Harris, Amy Klobuchar i Elizabeth Warren, oraz prędkie poparcie przez dwie pierwsze Bidena, pozwoliło demokratom na zatamowanie krwawienia całej kampanii. Uniknięto dzięki temu sytuacji z 2016 r. Sanders naciskany przez partyjne elity, świadom nieubłaganej porażki, wycofał się z wyścigu, zaś wszystkie trzy wymienione kobiety automatycznie stały się kandydatkami do nominacji wiceprezydenckiej.

Rice byłaby zapewne wymarzoną kandydatką Bidena. Doświadczona urzędnik i dyplomata, bez nadmiernych politycznych ambicji, być może stworzyłaby z Bidenem przyjacielski wręcz team. Nie starałaby się go przyćmić, a wraz z pogarszającym się zdrowiem, politycznie pogrzebać „za życia”. Byłaby zapewne takim Mikem Pencem Donalda J. Trumpa.

Zanim jednak demokratyczny „bilet” otrzyma klucze do Białego Domu, czeka go mordercza kampania wyborcza, cztery debaty wyborcze, w tym jedna wiceprezydencka. I tutaj doświadczona i charyzmatyczna Harris, urzędująca przecież senator, była prokurator generalna stanu Kalifornia, sprawnie ścierająca się z republikańskimi politykami i spektakularnie grillująca urzędników administracji Trumpa w senackich komisjach, miała niewątpliwą przewagę. Nadto decydowały jeszcze liczby. Pieniądze po prostu. Harris była i jest pomostem do portfeli zamożnego establishmentu kalifornijskiego demokratów. Tylko w ciągu 24 godzin od ogłoszenia kandydatury Harris, 11 sierpnia, kampania demokratyczna zainkasowała $26 mln. DNC, demokratyczne kierownictwo, i Biden zamykali lipiec z $294 mln w budżecie. Sztab RNC-Trumpa wyprzedzał ich wówczas zaledwie o $6 mln.

Wyborem Harris Biden odrzucił strategię równoważenia frakcji wewnątrz obozu demokratycznego, na rzecz ekspansywnej strategii pozyskiwania niezdecydowanych oraz umiarkowanego centrum Partii Republikańskiej. Spodziewanie, zarówno w obliczu tego, co dzieje się w przestrzeni medialno-internetowej, jak i stricte politycznej. Do republikańskich, antytrumpowych i probidenowych inicjatyw typu Lincoln Project czy Republican Voters Agains Trump tylko w ostatnich dniach dołączył kolejny, Republican Political Alliance for Integrity and Reform, Milesa Taylora, byłego szefa personelu w Departamencie Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego administracji Trumpa.

Wielce wymowne są składy prelegentów na konwencjach demokratów oraz trwającej w tych dniach konwencji republikańskiej. Podczas wirtualnej konferencji Partii Demokratycznej przemawiali znani republikanie, m.in. były gubernator Ohio i jeden z głównych kontrkandydatów Trumpa w wyścigu o nominację GOP w 2016 r. John Kasich, była kongreswoman z New Jersey Susan Molinari oraz była gubernator tego stanu Christine Todd Whitman. Z kolei w przypadku konwencji republikanów bardziej nawet liczy się, kogo zabraknie. Zabraknie klanu Bushów, w tym byłego prezydenta George’a W., jak i sędziwego już Roberta „Boba” Dole’a, byłego kandydata GOP w wyborach w 1996 r. przeciwko Williamowi „Billowi” Clintonowi. Substytutem jest natomiast cała niemalże rodzina urzędującego prezydenta, w tym aktualna dziewczyna Donalda Trumpa Jr., była żona Gavina Newsama, obecnego gubernatora Kalifornii, Kimberly Guilfoyle. Kilkakrotnie, co nietypowe, głos zabierze również sam Donald J. Trump.

Spośród nieobecnych rodzą się jednak zrzeszenia. Pierwszego dnia republikańskiej konwencji grupa 27 byłych kongresmenów GOP ogłosiła swoje poparcie dla Joe Bidena. To zaś wydaje się dopiero początkiem lawiny dezercji i buntów antytrumpowskich na prawicy. Biden nie chce ich wcale powstrzymywać i gasić. Jego przemówienie na okoliczność przyjęcia nominacji zostało starannie oczyszczone z wszelkiego rodzaju radykalizmów, ideologizmów i liberalnych antagonizmów. Wszak ma być kandydatem jedności i zgody. Biden nie opowiadał więc, wzorem Hilary Clinton sprzed czterech lat, o walce z węglem i rurociągami. „Joe” zamieniał wręcz hasła podniesione z pola bitwy światopoglądowej w karmę dla „gołębi”: „When I think about climate change, the word I think of is ‘jobs.’”

Spróbujmy, jak to zwykle czynimy, wpisać opisywane wyżej zjawiska w jakiś kontekst historyczny, ale i specyfikę amerykańskiej sceny politycznej. Nie jest oczywiście niczym niezwykłym, że kandydat jednej czy drugiej formacji otrzymuje poparcie zaprzyjaźnionych polityków przeciwnego obozu, jednakże skala tego zjawiska przywołuje na myśl spektakularne kampanie sprzed dekad. Choćby zwycięski marsz wyborczy Ronalda Reagana w 1980 r. Reagan kroczył po gruzach katastrofalnej w skutkach polityki zagranicznej Cartera, która gwoli sprawiedliwości była jedynie kontynuacją i zbiorami owoców zapoczątkowanej przez Nixona polityki „odprężenia” z Sowietami.

Reagan, kalifornijski fiskalny konserwatysta, nie miał łatwej przeprawy w walce o nominację GOP. Musiał przełamać opór „nixonowego” jej skrzydła, frakcji umiarkowano-liberalnej, którą naówczas reprezentował jego rywal George H. W. Bush oraz elit wschodniego wybrzeża. Mając już nominację w garści, oraz Busha przy boku, rozpoczął ekspansję na obszar okupowany przez Partię Demokratyczną. Skutecznie rozmontował rooseveltową „koalicję Nowego Dealu”, czyli elektorat składający się ze związkowców, farmerów, robotników, mniejszości pochodzących przede wszystkim z Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, białych mieszkańców południowych stanów, katolików, itd. Mieszkańców zarówno dzisiejszych „rust belt”, jak i „sun belt states”. Zaoferował im wizję państwa bezpiecznego i dostatniego, które, jak dobrze sterowany okręt wydostanie się z nękającego je permanentnego kryzysu ekonomiczno-tożsamościowego i wypłynie na spokojne wody. Za poparciem społecznym przyszedł kapitał polityczny. Tak zrodził się fenomen „Demokratów Reagana”. Kandydat republikanów, sędziwy i krytykowany za swój wiek, energicznie wdarł się w głęboko w teren republikanom dotąd nieprzyjazny. Nowa linia frontu utrzymała się mimo wielu niepopularnych reform ponad dekadę.

Żeby jednak nie odbierać szans obecnemu prezydentowi i nie przesądzać, za pomocą paralel, losów tej kampanii, poszukajmy bardziej dlań przyjaznych historycznych odniesień. Aktualnie w skali całego kraju Trump przegrywa w sondażach z Bidenem 8 proc. Jednak co gorsza, przegrywa we wszystkich swing states oraz prowadzi niebezpiecznie wyrównaną rywalizację w takich stanach, jak Teksas i Arizona. Jego wyniki przekładają się na wyniki walczących o utrzymanie miejsca w Senacie republikanów, nawet w Południowej Karolinie, gdzie widmo porażki zajrzało w oczy Lindseyowi Grahamowi. Jednakże do wyborów zostały ponad dwa miesiące, a w USA, gdzie czas płynie bardzo szybko, potęgując i tak wysoką obecnie dynamikę wydarzeń, wydarzyć się może jeszcze wszystko.

W lipcu 1988 r., na mniej więcej trzy miesiące przed wyborami, George H. W. Bush tracił w sondażu Gallupa aż 17 punktów procentowych do Michaela Dukakisa, kandydata demokratów. Bush nie był drugim Reaganem. Nie miał jego aparycji, dowcipu, „likeability”, wszystkie tego, co tworzy tzw. charyzmę. Był typem urzędnika. Popełniał wiele gaf i nie miał do siebie dystansu. Jeszcze latem kampania Busha przystąpiła do realizacji planu naprawczego oraz implementowania nowoczesnej i dość, jak na ówczesne standardy, agresywnej strategii, która miała uczynić Dukakisa mniej „lubialnym” od Busha.

Podkreślano zatem elitarne wykształcenie gubernatora Massachusetts, elitarną ścieżkę kariery politycznej, czytaj oderwanie od problemów zwykłych ludzi, wreszcie liberalne i mniej popularne poza Massachusetts podejście do podatków czy przestępczości. Tymczasem zrestartowany na konwencji GOP Bush, ruszył do ataku na oponenta. W swej „acceptance speach” przejął część obietnic Dukakisa, dorzucając własne, m.in. brak nowych podatków. Ostatni gwóźdź do kampanijnej trumny Dukakis wbił sam, podczas debaty z Bushem, odpowiadając na pytanie: czy opowiedziałby się za karą śmierci dla kogoś, kto zgwałcił i zabił jego żonę? Dukakis przemilczał wątek swej żony, której imię padło przed chwilą, i mechanicznym głosem począł wygrywać liberalne nuty na temat kary śmierci oraz dzielić się statystykami z Massachusetts. Trend prędko zaczął się odwracać, a w październiku fala, z którą płynął Bush, wyraźnie zatapiała okręt wyborczy Dukakisa.

Zatem w teorii „piłka pozostaje w grze”. Już niebawem przekonamy się, czy Biden jest Reaganem czy Dukakisem, a Trump, Carterem czy Bushem. Trump goni Bidena i musi udowodnić, że jest bliżej spraw zwykłych Amerykanów aniżeli Biden. Biden, zresztą rywal Dukakisa z 1988 r. w walce o nominację, wydaje się doskonale zdawać sobie z tego sprawę. Jest jednak jedno duże „ale”. Czasy są szczególne i niepowtarzalne. Wybory odbywają się w warunkach nie tylko recesji, ale i katastrofy epidemicznej. Wyniku wyborczego nie da się przewidzieć. Nigdy się zresztą nie da. Można obstawiać. W tym punkcie na osi czasu Trump przegrywa plebiscyt i bliżej mu do Cartera. Bukmacherzy typują starszego z kandydatów…

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