Koronawirus na Świecie

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Koronawirus na Świecie

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Czy Polska ma opracowany model pokonania pandemii? – Grzegorz Gorczyca

Marzec 2020 roku zapisze się w historii jako miesiąc wystąpienia epidemiologicznego zagrożenia dla całego świata. W listopadzie tego samego roku obserwujemy świat funkcjonujący w zupełnie nowej rzeczywistości gospodarczej i społecznej.

Marcowe „wygaszenie” świata?

W marcu nadrzędnym priorytetem było ochrona zdrowia i życia ludzi. Tu działania rządów całego świata były podejmowane na bieżąco – bez możliwości skorzystania z doświadczeń walki z nowym wirusem. Jednak zasady, tempo i zakres tego „wygaszania” różniły się między poszczególnymi rządami. Gdy przez Europę przelewała się pierwsza fala pandemii Covid-19, Szwecja stała się kontrowersyjnym wyjątkiem pod względem sposobu zmagania się z wirusem. Rząd polski działał szybko i skutecznie. Intuicyjnie podejmowane decyzje były i na bieżąco korygowane. Wypłaty ze środków rządowych wynagrodzeń za czas zamkniętej gospodarki przyczyniły się w znaczącym stopniu do zachowania płynności przedsiębiorstw. Działania rządu stanowiły adekwatną odpowiedź na wyzwania gospodarki pogrążonej w kryzysie. Uratowano fundament polskiej gospodarki.

Pandemia w lecie

Kolejne miesiące pokazały, że zakażenia wirusem SARS-CoV-2 przebiegają na ogół łagodnie. Wielu specjalistów uważa, że SARS-CoV-2 stanie się piątym endemicznym koronawirusem nawiedzającym ludzkość. Tak jak obecnie mówimy o sezonie grypowym, być może będziemy w przyszłości mówili o sezonie zachorowań na COVID-19.

Jesienna fala pandemii koronawirusa czy pandemia chaosu?

Po rozprężeniu w czasie wakacji, jesienią wprowadzano stopniowo ale chaotycznie restrykcje sanitarne. W Polsce brakuje jednego ośrodka decyzyjnego – czyli osoby odpowiedzialnej oraz zespołu specjalistów, epidemiologów i osób od organizacji ochrony zdrowia. Takiej funkcji nie może pełnić minister zdrowia, gdyż pandemia to zaledwie wycinek wszystkich zadań ministerstwa. Restrykcje ogłasza premier a innym razem minister zdrowia. Dlatego są chaotyczne i niespójne. Brakuje odgórnych zarządzeń, aktów prawnych opartych na konstytucji, które w przyszłości wykluczą roszczenia wielomilionowych odszkodowań za niezgodne z prawem działania organów władzy państwowej. Administracyjna ingerencja w gospodarkę powinna być zredukowana prawie do zera i decyzje powinny należeć do ludzi. Jeśli uznają, ze zagraża im choroba, będą się izolować lub podejmą inne niezbędne działania, by się przed chorobą uchronić. Chaos w oświacie nie powinien się zdarzyć, gdyż bezobjawowy lub lekki przebieg COVID-19 u dzieci i młodzieży nie uzasadnia zamykania szkół.

Grypa, COVID-19 czy przeziębienie – zawsze na oddział zakaźny?

Służba zdrowia niedoinwestowana przez lata nagle została dodatkowo obciążona kierowaniem do szpitali ludzi z przeziębieniem, grypą lub zakażeniem bezobjawowym lub skąpoobjawowym koronawirusem. W sezonie grypowym żadna służba zdrowia w żadnym kraju nie udźwignie hospitalizacji osób z infekcjami górnych dróg oddechowych. Początkowe objawy tych trzech chorób są podobne i zazwyczaj nie wymagają hospitalizacji. Potrzebna jest ustawowa decyzja, że na oddziały zakaźne mają być przyjmowani pacjenci ciężko chorzy, a nie „skąpo lub wręcz bezobjawowi”.

Zamknięty dostęp do planowego leczenia innych chorób!

Służba zdrowia jest swoistym barometrem funkcjonowania samorządu w sferze realizacji zadań własnych. Widać wieloletnie niedoinwestowanie i zaniedbania, które w okresie kryzysu uwidaczniają się z większą To niestety dzieje się teraz. Nie można jednak uzasadniać covidem zablokowanie pacjentom dostępu do planowego leczenia innych chorób.

Brak konsekwencji w działaniu i rzetelnej informacji o sytuacji epidemicznej

Ingerencje rządu w życie społeczne i prywatne było bardzo krytykowane przez specjalistów medycznych i społeczeństwo. Początkowy kredyt zaufania dla rządu zmarnowano przez sprzeczne i chaotyczne decyzje (maseczki niepotrzebne, potem obowiązkowe, wstęp do lasów to wzbroniony to dozwolony). Brakuje informacji, kto decyduje o zamykaniu parków, placów i basenów, ale zezwala na zorganizowanie zajęć na basenie dla seniorów w ramach zajęć zorganizowanych. Z jakiego powodu minister Szumowski rozwiązał Radę Naukową MZ, składającą się z 40 specjalistów, autorytetów w różnych dziedzinach medycznych. Dopiero 19 października premier Morawiecki poinformował, że przy rządzie powstaje rada ekspertów, której zadaniem będzie wspierać władzę w walce z epidemią. Z jakiego powodu bez odpowiedzi pozostają listy otwarte profesora medycyny, zadającego merytoryczne pytania dotyczące leczenia pacjentów? List otwarty blisko 200 lekarzy do premiera, również pozostał bez odpowiedzi.

Brak konsultacji społecznych dla działań antykryzysowych?

Tarcze antykryzysowe na obecnym etapie pandemii muszą być uzgadniane ze społeczeństwem, o czym zapomniano. Brak konsultacji świadczy o lekceważeniu ludzi.

Potrzebna strategia rządu wobec deficytu budżetowego!

Pandemia odcisnęła wyraźne piętno na polskiej gospodarce w skali makro. Cios w finanse państwa okazał się potężny. Oficjalnie mamy recesję, a polski PKB w drugim kwartale z rzędu (kwartał do kwartału) był na minusie. Deficyt budżetowy w tym roku ma sięgnąć 109,3 mld zł, w kolejnym – 82,3 mld zł. Skuteczna strategia rządu powinna zawierać wskazanie kierunków i konkretnych działań zwiększających docelowo przychody ze znacznego majątku Skarbu Państwa. W obecnej sytuacji kryzysu finansów państwa niezbędne wydaje zintensyfikowanie prac nad reformą przepisów samorządowych. Szczególnie pilne jest zreformowanie systemu nadzoru i kontroli samorządu w zakresie gospodarowania środkami publicznymi.

Sytuacja gospodarki i finansów państwa jest coraz trudniejsza

Pandemia dotknęła branże nierównomiernie, jednak wszystkie branże odnotowały straty. Hotelarstwo, gastronomia, górnictwo, branża rozrywkowa, kulturalna, turystyka, transport lotniczy itd. wszyscy są na minusie. Deficyt jest nieuchronny w relacji do PKB ma sięgnąć 12 procent, czyli blisko 250 mld zł. To wszystko przekłada się na perspektywę prawie 1,5 biliona złotych długu publicznego w przyszłym roku i ryzyko przekroczenia konstytucyjnych limitów zadłużenia.

Walka z pandemią w wersji szwedzkiej?

Władze Szwecji zastąpiły rygorystyczną kwarantannę wiosną apelem do ludzi, aby zachowywali bezpieczną odległość między sobą. Zakłady pracy, restauracje i bary, szkoły były otwarte. Można było bez ograniczeń przebywać na świeżym powietrzu. O maseczkach nie było nawet mowy. Zakazano tylko organizowania imprez i zgromadzeń dla więcej niż 50 osób. Jednak w odróżnieniu od reszty Europy Szwecja nie zniosła ograniczenia zgromadzeń do 50 osób nawet latem, kiedy liczba zachorowań znacznie spadła. Uznano, że surowe restrykcje nie mają sensu w przypadku wirusa, który prawdopodobnie będzie obecny przez długi czas.

Zwrot Europy w stronę szwedzkiej strategii?

W trakcie jesiennej fali pandemii coraz więcej krajów zwraca się w kierunku szwedzkiego modelu. Rządy europejskie zamiast twardego lockdownu postawiły na przekazywanie obywatelom porad i sugestii. Ewentualne obostrzenia są stosowane punktowo w regionach, w których wybuchają ogniska zakażeń, ale niechętnie wprowadzają ograniczenia dotyczące interakcji obywateli, co było częste wiosną.

Polska strategia funkcjonowania w pandemii potrzebna od zaraz?

Czy Polska nie powinna śladem Szwecji postawić na dobrowolność podejmowanych działań przez obywateli? Już teraz wiadomo, że musimy się po prostu przyzwyczaić do życia z koronawirusem, nauczyć się w miarę normalnie funkcjonować. Potrzebujemy sprawnej komunikacji rządu z przedsiębiorcami, by planując swoją działalność, wiedzieli, czego mogą się spodziewać. Odblokowanie dostępu do służby zdrowia wprowadzi spokój i wyeliminuje panikę, która komplikuje polską rzeczywistość nie tylko gospodarczą.

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